Thursday, May 21, 2009

The Decline and Fall of the NYC Empire



Since the end of World War II, New York City has served as the global epicenter of civilization. The wealth, culture and innovation it has spawned is truly extraordinary. Nearly 170 languages are spoken in the city. Forty percent of the world's finances are controlled by NYC. There is a whole laundry list of facts that I could include that all go towards demonstrating the same thing: NYC is the apex of modern civilization. But I'm here to tell you a different story. That not only has the city peaked, it has already lost its crown.

The world runs on capital. And no place leveraged capital better than NYC, specifically Wall Street. Wall Street's mastery over global finance cemented NYC's grip as the center of civilization. Accordingly, if you lived anywhere else in the world and you dreamed of prosperity, NYC was where you went to make it happen. In fact, even though I went to college 700 miles away from NYC, I believe that I am the only one from my graduating class of 6000 that doesn't currently live in New York. Put simply, NYC owned a monopoly over the creation of wealth.

But on September 15th, 2008, New Yorkers awoke with a Trojan horse on their doorsteps. That Trojan horse was the collapse of Lehman Brothers. New York never saw what hit them and that day forward, everything changed. What had previously been seen as an impenetrable fortress of wealth all of a sudden appeared vulnerable and open to attack. Instead of New Yorkers kidding about how a half a million dollars gets you a studio the size of a shoebox, they began wondering how far down can prices go. Instead of commenting on how the tough winters build character, they began to wonder the impacts of cold weather on the psyche. Instead of blindly following marching orders to arrive at work at 7AM and leave at 7PM, they began to wonder if they were fighting their war, or somebody else's. Instead of bravely wandering through the rat race for the piece of cheese at the end of the tunnel, they began to worry about the mousetrap.

For all those reading this article and shaking their heads thinking I'm crazy, listen to what I'm saying. I am not implying that other cities are not suffering the same or even worse obstacles than New York is facing, because they are (especially the city I currently live in, Phoenix). What I'm saying is that a city that never had a doubt, never questioned its hegemonic position in the world order, all of a sudden is having doubts, is questioning its future. And this has opened the flood gates. NYC must now question whether Wall Street can continue to take advantage of monetizing the dollar like it has over the past 30 years, which has been the source of so much of its wealth. Unfortunately, they will not like the answer, and all of a sudden, all the doubts listed above become magnified. When history looks back at September 2008, it will see the beginning of the waning of the NYC Empire.

Now before any of my readers, who live in NYC jump off a skyscraper, please calm down. Just like previous epicenters of civilization, such as Rome, Paris and London, the decline will be slow. New York is, and will continue to be the most dynamic and powerful city in the world for some time. Ok, now your thinking I obviously suffer from short term memory loss (like in that movie Memento), as I mentioned earlier that New York has already lost its crown as the apex of modern civilization. It has, but not to another city, but to WWW, the World Wide Web.

The web has now been accessed by about 1.6 billion people and that number grows everyday. The opportunities on the web to find employment, gain wealth, gather information, appreciate art and observe a diverse range of culture has long ago surpassed that of any city. Whereas NYC has often been coined a melting pot of civilization, the web is more like a rain storm of civilization, where information is coming fast and hard in small drops at a time and ultimately aggregating into a larger sea of information. And as we continue to get pelted with culture from disparate sources (and the web's technology becomes more sophisticated), we will continue to redefine our understanding of civilization. No longer should it or will it be limited in context to just our physical interactions, but rather also in the context of our virtual interactions. And (pay attention politicians and world leaders) no longer will any wall, mountain or ocean prove strong enough to separate one civilization from another; because the reach of the Web is infinite.

Short of a complete reversal of society's technological advancement, New York City will undoubtedly be the last CITY to serve as the embodiment of civilization. But NYC now bows down to the World Wide Web, as it now owns the crown.
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